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Updated 10/06/2006 21:38

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Columbus Day Weekend Outlook

Friday was an interesting day, with lines of severe thunderstorms over most of Arizona ahead of a low pressure system and active cold front.  Originally forecast to clear out of our area by Saturday, some interesting weather dynamics may hold on to the moisture for another round of storms this weekend.  Rather than the dry air with sparse cumulus typical of a departing cold front, we are likely to see moisture returning on Saturday for a repeat performance of Friday.

NWS Synopsis  (Friday Evening)

Tucson

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN NEVADA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REST OF ARIZONA THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DIVING DOWN THE WEST 
COAST. IT NOW APPEARS THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST BEFORE TURNING EAST INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY 
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST 
ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WEEK.

Phoenix

DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEANS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING THE GREATER 
PHOENIX AREA COLUMBUS DAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND EAST OF THE GREATER 
PHOENIX AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A DRY FLOW OF AIR ALOFT 
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY OCTOBER THROUGH NEXT WEEK. 

Saturday's  Forecast

Phoenix

A little cooler and less breezy.  Mostly sunny with moderately strong thermals to around 7,500 feet to 8,500 and scattered cumulus.  Light to moderate south to south-westerly winds.

Phoenix Forecast Sounding for Saturday

Phoenix Forecast Sounding for Sunday

El Tiro

Cooler and drier than Friday, but still plenty of moisture for cumulus and the odd shower over mountains.  A surprise visit from another low pressure system could mean the return of moisture and instability late Saturday and Sunday.  Expect moderately strong thermals to cloudbase around 9,000 feet.  Moderate south to south-west winds aloft.